Shale Gas in the UK revisited

At the request of The Co-operative, the Tyndall Centre has revisted their previous report on the potential impacts of shale gas in the UK to provide an update - and once again we provided assistance.

So what has changed? One of the main things are the announcements from Cuadrilla, which is currently doing exploratory drilling near Blackpool.  Along with other reports, Cuadrilla's own has suggested that the amounts of shale gas to be found in the UK could be much higher than previous estimates. This makes a big difference when you look at the potential carbon emissions associated with burning the gas. Using different scenarios for the amounts of gas that may be extracted and burned allows you to assess how this might impact on the emissions from the UK. In the previous report our scenario with the highest amount of shale gas suggested that burning it could contribute just over 4% of the total UK carbon budget between 2010 and 2050. In the updated report, and using the higher estimates for shale gas, this rises to a very significant 15%. If this were to happen, and we were to stick to the budgets that have been set, then there will a lot of pressure on other parts of society to reduce emissions more drastically. Given this, and the short timescales for action, the report concludes:

"emissions from a fully developed UK shale gas industry would likely be very substantial in their own right. If the UK Government is to respect its obligations under both the Copenhagen Accord and Low Carbon Transition Plan, shale gas offers no meaningful potential as even a transition fuel."

Further questions are explored in the report, including whether carbon emissions associated with getting the gas out of the ground, and to its final destination, really are lower than coal. The cost of developing shale gas and potential to offset investment in renewables is also covered.

In terms of substance, the conclusions of the updated report are little changed from the first version but the new evidence has hardened the stance somewhat:

"Against such a quantifiable and stark evaluation, it is difficult to conclude other than the UK needs to invest in very low carbon energy supply if it is to both abide by its international obligations and support economically sustainable technologies."